A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
